| Abstract Submission No. | ABS-11-0320 |
| Title of Abstract | Investigating the Teleconnection between Spring Arctic Sea ice and Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall |
| Authors | Juhi Yadav*, Avinash Kumar, Seong-Joong Kim, Rohit Srivastava, Rahul Mohan |
| Organisation | National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research |
| Address | National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research, Headland Sad Vasco da Gama, Goa, India Pincode: 403804 E-mail: juhi@ncpor.res.in |
| Country | India |
| Presentation | Oral |
| Abstract | The relationship between Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) has gained significant attention due to its impact on the Earth's climate system. The present study employs statistical and dynamical analysis using passive microwave sea ice data to elucidate the relationship between Arctic SIC and ISMR from 1979 to 2021 on seasonal scale. The singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis reveals maximum total variance of 41.1% between spring Arctic SIC and ISMR. Additionally, empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analysis highlights the leading mode (PC1) of ISMR, explaining 32% of the variance and exhibiting significant variability across different regions. Further, a notable inverse correlation is observed between ISMR PC1 and Arctic spring SIC in both the Central Arctic (r = 0.51, p>0.05) and the Barents-Kara Sea (r = -0.39, p>0.05). These findings suggest that increased ISMR is associated with enhanced SIC in the central Arctic due to the influence of circumglobal teleconnections (CGT). The study demonstrates that the Rossby wave pattern and the formation of troughs and ridges across the Northern Hemisphere play a substantial role in influencing the variability of ISMR in response to changes in Arctic SIC. This highlights the interconnectedness of these climatic factors and their impact on the monsoon system. Importantly, the research confirms that SIC exhibits a long memory, implying that changes in Arctic sea ice conditions have a lasting effect on subsequent ISMR patterns. These findings emphasize the importance of understanding and monitoring Arctic SIC as a potential indicator for predicting and assessing variations in Indian summer monsoon rainfall. |
| Keywords | Sea ice concentration, ice-atmosphere interaction, Circumglobal teleconnections, Rossby Wave |
| For Awards | yes |